Basically Trump can't win without Florida

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tector
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Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by tector » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:03 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016 ... obile.html

Not surprising. Would be very hard for any Republican to lose 3 out of the 4 top electoral college states--and CA and NY are sure goners every election.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by Gregh181 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:43 pm

Polls in the summer for presidential elections don't mean anything. Especially from New York Times.

I remember Rubio being up big in Fl w some stupid poll of like 1200 people or so. A month later FL was called for Trump almost immediately.

Don't buy into these BS polls. They are assuming that all the states Obama turned blue the last two elections will still stay Blue. I don't see it happening for quite a few of them.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by TC6969 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 1:20 pm

Yeah, its way too early for any polls to have any real value.

Not to mention most of them are slanted in the direction the people doing the polling want them to go.

Its like announcing that 97% of Americans are in favor of gay marriage, after polling 250 people in the Castro district of San Francisco.
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tector
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by tector » Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:06 pm

OK, you've convinced me--Trump can win without Florida.

He can let Hillary have 113 electoral votes (out of 270 needed--almost 42% home) in just 3 of the 4 biggest states and pull it off. He's Trump, he can do anything!

Whistling past the graveyard, people.

He needs Florida, absolutely and without question. He is toast otherwise.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by Gregh181 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:15 pm

tector wrote:OK, you've convinced me--Trump can win without Florida.

He can let Hillary have 113 electoral votes (out of 270 needed--almost 42% home) in just 3 of the 4 biggest states and pull it off. He's Trump, he can do anything!

Whistling past the graveyard, people.

He needs Florida, absolutely and without question. He is toast otherwise.
Your quick to shoot back but yet you post a dumb ass article from the New York Times :-k Everyone knows if you want to win the presidency you have to win Florida. The whole I-4 corridor thing is well known. Now lets talk about which direction the sun is going to set in today.....
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by tector » Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:24 pm

I forgot--you're brain damaged or something. Numbers frighten and perplex you.

Never mind.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by Gregh181 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:26 pm

Numbers from the New York Times? How accurate do you think those are. Do you also watch MSNBC too? Do you believe all those numbers too? And I'm the brain damaged one =:bye

Do you believe as well all the ''numbers'' the Brady campaign puts out there as well about gun control? Even if their wrong, according to you their still numbers right?

Are you familiar with the term, bias?
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by tector » Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:32 pm

There are numbers from four organizations in there. But numbers are all a trick from the Illuminati. All you have to do is believe!

It is getting hard to stay on board a raft full of morons.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by Gregh181 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:36 pm

Your so right though, your so much smarter than the rest of us. It must be hard really. So 4 different organizations poll about 1000-1500 people each, and they represent the millions and millions of people that are going to vote. No, that sounds legit.

Especially because its summer, not one debate has happened yet,and its DAY 2 of the Gop convention.

Its funny really, people arguing like you are about the numbers. They had the same argument, odds. all these graphs, hell all the media saying Trump would never be the nominee. He got 10 million votes in the primary, the most ever. Proved everyone wrong. But lets believe these numbers
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by Orlando Paulitician » Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:04 pm

Gregh181 wrote:Your so right though, your so much smarter than the rest of us. It must be hard really. So 4 different organizations poll about 1000-1500 people each,
not a professional statistician, but after having taken 5+ stat classes across 2 different degrees fields, I'm left with the mild impression that a sample size in the thousands, assuming it's randomly chosen and no biased clownery is being performed, is fairly robust.

But, to your point, even if they are, they are only representative of today. The sample results could change because, assuming they ARE representative of the population, you've made the legitimate claim that the population's opinion could change between now and election day.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by Gregh181 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:10 pm

Random and no biased in their poll. Do you trust the likes of New York Times and the such to be as such?

My point being I don't trust any of these small sample sized polls. They switch back and forth almost daily.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by captain steinbrenner » Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:18 pm

Trump will take Florida and New York.
Mark my words.

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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by Gregh181 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:50 pm

I'm not sold on New York I think their too far gone
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by firemedic2000 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:03 pm

The people taking the poll can get what ever result they want. They know what numbers to call within an area code, what specific area to call ect...ect...

So what your saying is that 1200 people can be polled and from those 1200 people you can guess and I use that term loosely based alittle on what I wrote above. Either way by asking 1200 people I can predict the outcome of how 12,215,216 registered voters here in Florida are going to vote.


Man I need those pollsters to pick my lotto numbers. As I stated above. I can get a poll to show whatever result I want. Just depends on who's paying for it. The left pay for polls and figure that if the polls keep saying Hillary is ahead in the polls people will vote for here. Just because the polls state she's leading/winning.

Most all of these NEWS and Organizations are liberal left and guess who's doing these polls. Again guess who these so called unbiased polls are going to show in the lead and or winning. HILLARY.

There are very few polls that I even trust and even then I do not consider them very accurate in the long run. It always amazes me that 1000 to 1500 can determine how millions will vote.

Hell most the polls said Trump would not be nominated as the Republican canidate for president. Sure glad the people didn't read or listen to those polls
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by jjk308 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:09 pm

A Democratic internal poll from a Democratic pollster in a very biased Democratic newspaper. It has Trump stomping Clinton in West Pasco, District 36 is mostly suburban, along the US 19 corridor from Holiday to Hudson, not rural.


Great news for Donald Trump in Florida

Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor
Wednesday, July 20, 2016 9:52am http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz- ... -politics/

For all the talk that Donald Trump could be an anchor on downballot Republican candidates, we keep seeing signs that the opposite may be true in Tampa Bay. The Republican nominee is particularly strong in the battleground region, and it's Hillary Clinton who could be a drag on the candidacies of fellow Democrats.

The latest evidence is a new, internal poll by the Democratic firm Frederick Polls of a bellwhether Florida House district in west Pasco County, 36. Democrat Amanda Murphy currently represents that district loaded with independent voters, and Charlie Crist won it over Rick Scott in 2014 and Barack Obama won it in 2012. The new poll shows Trump trouncing Clinton there, 51 percent to 39 percent.

So don't be surprised if you don't see Amanda Murphy throwing her arms around Hillary Clinton any time soon.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by cvasqu03 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:49 pm

Polls at this point are meaningless.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by firemedic2000 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 8:00 pm

Agree
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by jjk308 » Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:32 am

Except that a lot of people are disgusted by, hate and fear Hillary Clinton.
Ditto Trump except that outside of the foaming at the mouth of the core Democrats it isn't a deep a feeling as the anti-Hillary one but worry that he "isn't Presidential".

Polls tend to pick up the emotions of the moment and both candidates are in a mess.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by TheHobbiest » Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:07 am

So Hillary can't win without Florida too then? Or could Florida go to the Johnson and Hillary still win? Bet nobody has even cared to take a look at the Johnson winning.
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Re: Basically Trump can't win without Florida

Post by jjk308 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:12 am

TheHobbiest wrote: Or could Florida go to the Johnson and Hillary still win? Bet nobody has even cared to take a look at the Johnson winning.
Yes they have and it just adds 1% tot he spread in favor of Trump.

As for Johnson winning: [smilie=011.gif] [smilie=011.gif] [smilie=011.gif] [smilie=011.gif] [smilie=011.gif] :ham'r
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